This article was submitted by ARMARaptor.
Talking about the current sad state of dating and marriage in the USA will often elicit “Not All Women Are Like That” or NAWALT.
The first thing is not to contradict whoever makes that claim. Why? Because it is true. Not all women are skanks, attention whores or predators. The MRA cause is not helped by attacking people who speak truthfully. Better to examine the assumptions behind “Not all women are like that” and then reply. This article does that.
There are three unrealistic assumptions behind NAWLT. They are:
1. Perfect Detection (Zero Error)
Not every woman is a suitable partner. Some women are sociopaths
and exploiters. A great date may not be a great wife. So a man has to
choose. If her errs, it costs. Because of anti-male laws, this cost is high.
Choose the wrong wife and half your assets vanish. If you have children,
it is unlikely you will see them. Plus the threat of false accusations.
As the cost of selecting the wrong woman increases, the error rate has
to go down. Lowering the error rate takes more time and resources.
Eventually cost of finding a partner exceeds the benefit of finding a
partner. At that point, looking for a partner becomes pointless.
2. Zero or Low Cost Of Error
The cost of error (selecting the wrong woman) also influences the risk of
selecting the wrong woman. That is because the risk associated with an
error is a function of both cost of error and the chances of the error
occurring (Risk of Error = Cost of Error * probability of error).
A low cost of error can mitigate a high probability of error. But a low
cost of error for spouse selection is not a valid assumption, especially
3. Infinite Time And Resources Available For Search
It is generally agreed that one should be slow to marry. This is because
compatibility is a complex matter and takes time to correctly assess. If
it takes 100 years to find a suitable mate, what is the point? Most
people do not live that long.
Furthermore, only so much time and resources can be devoted to a mate
search. Could the energy be better directed elsewhere?
There is another aspect to mate searching. When a man considers a woman for a wife, he is testing two hypotheses. The first one is “Is she suitable?”. The second hypothesis is “Is she not suitable?”.
When you do hypothesis testing, the hypothesis you assume to be true by default is important. This is called the null hypothesis. It is what you assume true in the absence of evidence to the contrary. It is designated Ho or H1.
The remaining hypothesis is called the research or alternative hypothesis. It is the hypothesis you adopt only when there is evidence for it. It is designated Ha or H2.
You decide which hypothesis to reject or not reject based on evidence. If the evidence is in favor of the alternative hypothesis (Ha or H2), you accept it and reject the null hypothesis (Ho or H1). If the evidence does not support the alternative hypothesis (Ha or H2), you retain the the null hypothesis (Ho or H1).
Now set up a hypothesis test for the mate selection problem assuming what NAWLT advocates say is true. Since not all women are like that, it logically follows that the null hypothesis is Ho: She is suitable. The alternative hypothesis is Ha: She is not suitable.
The hypothesis test is now:
Ho: She is suitable
Ha: She is not suitable
There are four outcomes to this test
a. She is suitable when she really is – Correct decision
b. She is not suitable when she really is not suitable – Correct decision
c. She is suitable when she really is not – Error. This is called a false positive or Type I error
d. She is not suitable when she really is suitable – Error. This is called a false negative or Type II error
Which is outcome has the most potential for damage? Outcomes a and b are correct decisions, so they incur zero or low cost. Outcome d, the false negative, is unfortunate, but not that costly.
The most costly outcome is c, the false positive. That means our man is now married to a skank, sociopath or gold digger. Thus our man wants to minimize the false positive rate.
But if our man reduces the false positive rate, the false negative rate increases. He winds up rejecting suitable women to keep from selecting non-suitable ones.
This is what men face today. The cost of bad wife selection is so high that he is forced to turn away good women for fear of mistakenly choosing a bad one.